Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 71498.768838 75537.467280 79575.772397 83913.667353 88438.480748 93016.048055 97993.970918
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 64833.535365 71000.280791 77339.508380 84333.612466 91824.184835 99596.234153 108260.288379
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 60151.895986 67772.987372 75779.674355 84799.026884 94656.357250 105082.400909 116923.551309
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 56269.925306 64944.973288 74227.715037 84867.508539 96692.302679 109397.644252 124047.444421
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 53823.883235 63428.337393 73869.052614 86014.517385 99705.419300 114611.486774 132017.070390
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 50899.617391 61156.586487 72471.056863 85813.558086 101050.100368 117839.325197 137668.503225
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 49286.559695 60247.099018 72495.304282 87112.990281 103995.877956 122794.149262 145215.721220
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 47586.740474 59124.401452 72175.886795 87928.068939 106314.225825 126985.005114 151864.776247
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 45611.998857 57573.794664 71265.795455 87970.405895 107666.050687 130013.558487 157143.798794
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 43713.320061 56022.454575 70272.440740 87837.691114 108747.320511 132679.097337 161968.509051
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 42815.619706 55622.621954 70599.284823 89229.518864 111595.057085 137389.128485 169181.904161
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 41891.009232 55140.484249 70785.870147 90419.018150 114179.428008 141781.645171 176031.942889
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 40639.171988 54226.846242 70433.849715 90956.039874 115998.839378 145307.281046 181924.017259
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 39185.016710 53010.117943 69667.997963 90952.374554 117140.370859 148015.418935 186850.876520
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 38022.282375 52114.498578 69258.057281 91350.613499 118744.735595 151265.267503 192429.390046
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 36765.709874 51052.573152 68599.348015 91402.864464 119895.294106 153949.127475 197320.723716
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 36129.753727 50760.632430 68884.246261 92615.439995 122469.224729 158364.796511 204332.112408
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 34877.993286 49625.797028 68063.303924 92401.316712 123241.714832 160561.246928 208629.727750
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 34406.945972 49494.454588 68507.234373 93779.540604 126003.785469 165211.234178 215961.163254
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 33738.329842 49076.301734 68561.354160 94643.999509 128110.807803 169054.009642 222313.462601
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 32753.286857 48203.512739 67997.683722 94688.891914 129160.546920 171573.344157 227027.138307
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 31738.116707 47258.612238 67311.091199 94548.135210 129952.570309 173758.042124 231321.673688
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 31432.068629 47265.920898 67868.645340 96024.157532 132820.229438 178560.608736 238918.545018